The New Club World Cup and Who is the Favourite to Win?

by Sam Waller

Since the birth of the Club World Cup in 2000, only three teams outside of Europe have won the competition, and they have all been Brazilian (Corinthians, São Paulo and Internacional). A European winner has come out on top every time since 2012, with a mix of Spanish and English teams and one German team (Bayern Munich) showing the other continents how the beautiful game is played.

8 European teams and 3 Brazilian teams have won the FCWC.

However, the competition has had a rebrand and a facelift, with a new format and a new trophy for the 2025 competition. The once-seven-team competition now includes thirty-two teams and a new trophy that requires a key, which was presented by an ecstatic (!) Donald Trump earlier this year. The competition this year will be hosted in the United States and will mirror that of the international football tournaments, now running every four years. Teams in the past have been known not to take the competition as seriously as tournaments, especially those from the Premier League and Europe. However, this may change with the American market's eagerness for elite football. The competition this year offers a total prize pool of £775 million, with £407 million shared across all clubs and a performance-driven £368 million up for grabs. The introduction of profit and sustainability rules (PSR) in recent years has made it far more challenging for teams to spend the money they want on new players. Manchester City, one of, if not the favourite team to win the competition, has had ongoing legal battles regarding PSR for the last few years. With a prize pot as large as this, I can see them treating this competition as more than just a pre-season warm-up.

Gianni Infantino (FIFA President) with the key and the President of the US, Donald Trump.

This time around, it will be far from a walk in the park with additional European giants in the competition. Last time, City breezed to the final in 2023, beating Fluminense 4-0. This time, they will start in a group made up of themselves, Juventus, the Moroccan team Wydad AC and Al Ain FC from Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

They are, however, still favourites to win the competition according to some of the bookies, with others tipping Real Madrid as the favourites. Even AI believes City will come out on top when asked the question “Who will win the FIFA Club World Cup 2025?’’

Manchester City and Real Madrid appear to be favourites to win this summer.

Chat GPT believes the final will be played between Manchester City and Bayern Munich (with City knocking out Real Madrid in the earlier rounds). Chat GPT believes that it will be a 1-1 result with City winning in extra time or on penalties and said ‘City’s ability to control the tempo, rotate relentlessly, and punish mistakes should tip the balance’. I believe Madrid will come out on top, with Pep Guardiola’s team not showing their best football so far this season.

Nevertheless, it appears a European team is likely to come out on top unless FIFA and the hosts (United States) throw in a curveball. Many believe the last World Cup was staged for Lionel Messi to win. According to former player and manager of Holland at the time, Louis Van Gaal, claimed the competition was ‘’rigged’’ in favour of Messi and Argentina to win the competition after they knocked out Holland in the quarter finals. He claimed the referees weren’t fair and were more lenient towards Messi’s Argentina. Could we see more of this controversy this summer, as Messi’s Inter Miami qualify through a controversial decision by FIFA to award Inter Miami a backdoor route into the Club World Cup? Miami finished the season as runaway leaders of the Eastern Conference but lost the deciding third MLS playoff game to Atlanta. However, the MLS’s glamour team will still take a place in the expanded 32-team competition after they won the "Supporters' Shield" for finishing top of the MLS standings after the regular season. FIFA President Gianni Infantino said at the time that they were the best team throughout the season, but also at the time, FIFA still had not acquired a TV rights deal for the competition. Since allowing Miami to qualify for the competition and including the world's most famous player, FIFA have since partnered with streaming platform DAZN (December 2024), who will show all 63 matches between the 15th June and 13th July 2025 for free for football fans to watch worldwide. The deal is said to be worth around £829 million.

Rewind a few months to September 2024; players in the Premier League were ‘’close’’ to striking due to the number of games they were playing. According to Manchester City and current Ballon d’Or winner, Rodri, and Liverpool and Brazil international, Alisson, players are not being listened to, with no solution with regards to fixture congestion. Both players, since September, have gone on to obtain long-term injuries.

Towards the end of 2024, Pep Guardiola said ‘’We have more games than ever in this calendar," he said. "The number of injuries we've had has today made me reflect that you need a squad of 25-30 players’’. "It will be more difficult financially for the club. In the summer, we will play the Club World Cup over three weeks and then the Premier League will start again’’.

Rodri (Man City) and the Ballon d'or.

Fast forward to April 2025, and the Premier League released a statement claiming there will be an extra transfer window this summer, with the windows opening either side of the FIFA Club World Cup. Once again showing how money talks…